Free MLB player-prop picks · No paywall · No deleted losses

The picks are free.
The receipts are the product.

FREEGAIME publishes the live board from PropsEdge, a consensus-anchored MLB props model. Every pick hits this page and the API the moment it qualifies. Every bet is logged before first pitch, graded from official box scores, and scored against the closing line — nothing is ever deleted.

Backtest win ratei BACKTEST
walk-forward sim, 2026 season
Backtest ROIi BACKTEST
breakeven at −113 is 53.07%
Avg closing-line valuei LIVE
the sharpest predictor of long-run edge
Bets loggedi LIVE
public paper ledger

Numbers marked BACKTEST come from a walk-forward simulation of the 2026 season (zero look-ahead) priced at −113 both sides. Numbers marked LIVE come from the real-time paper ledger below, which started July 2026 and updates as games settle. We show both because a backtest alone proves nothing — the live ledger is the test you can watch.

Today's live board

Picks appear here automatically when the model finds a book priced at least 2% EV above consensus-fair (Pinnacle / market-consensus anchored, vig removed). If the board is quiet, that's the discipline working — no edge, no pick. Board refreshes every 60 seconds.

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Track record — public and permanent

The full paper ledger: every bet, its price, the closing line it beat (or didn't), and the graded result. Paper-traded from a $10,000 starting bankroll with quarter-Kelly staking. This is the audit trail most pick-sellers won't show you.

Live ledger LIVE

Record (W-L-P)i
Live ROIi
P&L (paper)i
Open bets / exposurei
Avg CLVi
CLV positivei
Ledger startedi

Bankroll curve LIVE

Backtest BACKTEST

Simulated betsi
Win ratei
ROIi
Projection error (MAE)i
Window

Bet ledger

Logged (PT)iGamePlayerMarketPickiBookiPriceiCloseiCLViStakeiResultiP&Li
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How the edge is found

No gut calls, no "locks", no tout copy. The system only bets when the market itself says the price is wrong.

01 / PRICE TRUTH

Consensus-fair anchoring

Sharp anchors (Pinnacle, market consensus) define the true probability of each prop. The vig is stripped with a multiplicative de-vig so we're comparing real probabilities, not book margins.

02 / THE GATE

+2% EV minimum

A pick only qualifies when a bettable book hangs a price at least 2% EV above consensus-fair at the exact same line. Anything screaming >10% EV is auto-flagged as a data artifact and never reaches the board.

03 / SIZING

Quarter-Kelly staking

Stakes are quarter-Kelly, capped at 2% of bankroll per bet and 20% total exposure. Survival first: the edge only pays if variance can't kill the bankroll before the long run arrives.

04 / SCOREBOARD

Closing-line value

Closing lines are captured ~40 minutes before first pitch and every bet is scored on CLV — the metric professional bettors live by. Consistently beating the close is the strongest evidence an edge is real.

Under the hood: a strikeout projection model (opponent K% vs. handedness, recency-weighted rates, 10,000-run Monte Carlo, plate-umpire tracking across 1,300+ games) acts as a veto layer on top of the market signal, across six prop markets — pitcher strikeouts, earned runs, hits allowed, outs recorded, batter hits, and total bases.

Free JSON API

Everything on this page is served by a public read-only API. No key, no signup — CORS is open, limit is 120 requests/min per IP. Build your own tracker, bot, or spreadsheet on top of it. Prices in raw API responses are decimal odds (e.g. 1.87 = −115); probabilities and EV are fractions (0.055 = 5.5%).

GET/api/public/picksToday's live board — qualified picks with line, book, price, EV and game time. Optional ?date=YYYY-MM-DD.
GET/api/public/betsThe full paper ledger with closing prices, CLV and graded results. Paginate with ?limit=&offset= (max 1000).
GET/api/public/recordHeadline record: live W-L, ROI, CLV, bankroll curve, per-market splits and the backtest summary in one call.
GET/api/public/backtestFull backtest detail: sample size, win rate, ROI, MAE, Brier score and the calibration table.
# today's board
curl -s https://freegaime.com/api/public/picks | jq '.picks[] | {player, market, side, line, book, price, ev}'

# the receipts
curl -s "https://freegaime.com/api/public/bets?limit=50" | jq '.bets[] | {date, player, side, line, price, close_price, clv, result, pnl}'
// live sample of /api/public/picks — fetched from this page just now
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